India To Surpass China As Most Populous Country In 2023: UN Report

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United Nations According to a United Nations report on Monday that the world population is expected to reach eight billion by mid-November 2022, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country next year.

The World Population Outlook 2022 by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, said the world population is expected to reach eight billion by November 15, 2022.

The world population is growing at the slowest rate since 1950, after falling below one percent in 2020.

The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world population could grow to about 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050.

It is expected to peak at around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100.

This year’s World Population Day (July 11) falls during a milestone year, when we expect the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitant. It is an opportunity to celebrate our diversity, to acknowledge our common humanity and to marvel at advances in health that have extended life expectancy and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates, said UN Secretary-General Ant nio Guterres.

At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our obligations to each other, he added.

The report said that “India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2023.

The world’s two most populous regions in 2022 were East and Southeast Asia, with 2.3 billion people, representing 29 percent of the world population, and Central and Southern Asia, with 2.1 billion, representing 26 percent of represents the total world population.

China and India were responsible for the largest populations in these regions, with more than 1.4 billion each in 2022.

More than half of the projected increase in world population by 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

“Different population growth rates among the world’s largest countries will change in order of magnitude: for example, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2023,” the report said.

According to the report, India’s population stands at 1.412 billion in 2022, compared to China’s 1.426 billion.

India, which will surpass China by 2023 as the world’s most populous nation, is expected to have a population of 1.668 billion by 2050, well ahead of China’s 1.317 billion people by the middle of the century.

The report added that it is estimated that ten countries experienced a net outflow of more than 1 million migrants between 2010 and 2021.

In many of these countries, these outflows were due to temporary labor movements, such as for Pakistan (net outflow of -16.5 million during 2010-2021), India (-3.5 million), Bangladesh (-2.9 million), Nepal (-1.6 million) million) and Sri Lanka (-1 million).

In other countries, including the Syrian Arab Republic (-4.6 million), Venezuela (Bolivar Republic of) (-4.8 million) and Myanmar (-1 million), insecurity and conflict have been the net outflow of migrants over the decade. driven.

Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990. Further reductions in deaths are expected to result in an average global life expectancy of approximately 77.2 years in 2050.

Yet the life expectancy for the least developed countries in 2021 was 7 years behind the world average.

Alternative long-term population projections have also been undertaken by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

In its recent projections, IHME projected that the world population will reach 8.8 billion in 2100 with a range of 6.8 billion to 11.8 billion.

The main difference between the projections released by IHME and the United Nations lies in the assumptions about the future level of fertility.

The report said that IHME projects that the global level of fertility will decline faster than under the United Nations medium scenario.

According to IHME, the average number of children per woman at the end of the century will drop to 1.66 children while the United Nations predicts that fertility on the same date will be around 1.84.

In India, IHME projects a total fertility rate of 1.29 births per woman in 2100 instead of 1.69 in the United Nations medium scenario, resulting in a population 433 million smaller than according to the United Nations projections the end of the century.

The share of the world population at age 65 and older is expected to rise from 10 percent in 2022 to 16 percent in 2050.

At that time, the number of people aged 65 or over worldwide is expected to be more than twice the number of children under the age of 5 and about the same as the number under the age of 12.

Countries with aging populations need to take steps to adapt public programs to the growing number of older people, including by establishing universal health and long-term care systems and by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems.

The report noted that the COVID-19 pandemic affected all three components of population change. Global life expectancy at birth has dropped to 71.0 years in 2021.

In some countries, successive waves of the pandemic may have caused short-term reductions in the number of pregnancies and births, while for many other countries there is little evidence of an impact on fertility levels or trends. The pandemic has severely limited all forms of human mobility, including international migration.

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