Low fertility to keep Bangladesh population at 20 crore in 2045

Bangladesh’s population growth will drop to 0.37% in 2045 from the current 1.11% due to the persistently low fertility rate, which takes the number of people in that year just a little over 20 crore, according to a new UN report.

The population will peak at about 20.69 crore in 2061 before dropping to 17.64 crore by the end of this century, as predicted by the United Nations Department of Social Affairs and Economic Affairs.

The UN report entitled “World Population Prospects 2022” released on July 11 showed that fertility rates have dropped markedly in Bangladesh over the past 50 years.

The UN estimated that a family had an average of seven children per woman in 1972, which dropped to 1.98 children in 2021 and the number is expected to decline further to 1.76 in 2045, 1.74 in 2061 and 1 , 7 in 2100.

Declining fertility rate means the country may have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

Professor Mohammad Mainul Islam, former chair of the Department of Population Sciences, University of Dhaka, said: “Health workers, who have worked from the grassroots of the country, are the key players behind this success story [a lower fertility rate]. ”

Media campaigns, women’s education and employment also played an important role, he also said.

“We are passing a very good time in terms of achieving the first demographic dividend which will continue until 2035 or 2037. We will benefit from the first demographic dividend, if all policies work together with regard to planned age structure, education and health, job creation and good governance, ”he continued.

The second demographic dividend will come after 2047-2048 when the country can see an increasing aging population in the labor market and this could be a problem if they do not get proper health care and social support from the government, he noted.

“To capitalize on our current human resources, we need to invest more in quality and market-oriented technical education, health and job creation,” he added.

Bangladesh’s 2012 Population Policy, which was valid until 2015, needs to be updated.

In addition, there is a need for stronger family planning in both urban and rural areas, Mainul Islam said.

In 2021, the average fertility rate of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime, after falling from about 5 births per woman in 1950. Global fertility is expected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman. woman by 2050.

“Further action by governments aimed at reducing fertility will have little impact on the rate of population growth between now and the middle of the century, due to the youthful age structure of today’s global population,” said John Wilmoth, director of the UN Population Division. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more significant slowdown in world population growth in the second half of the century, he also said.

Although Bangladesh’s population grew from 6.93 crore in 1972 to 16.94 crore in 2021, the growth rate slowed. The growth was 2.57% in 1972, which dropped to 1.11% in 2021.

With a growth rate of just 0.37%, the UN expects the number of people in Bangladesh to peak at around 20.69 crore in 2061, before dropping to 17.64 crore by the end of the century. .

Meanwhile, the UN estimates that with 1,301 inhabitants per square kilometer, population density in Bangladesh was much higher than in some of the world’s most populous countries, such as China, India, United States, Indonesia and Pakistan in 2021.

It is expected to be higher at 1,542 people per square kilometer in 2045, and 1,590 in 2061, before falling to 1,535 by the end of the century.

India will surpass China as the most populous nation in 2023

India is on track to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2023, with each numbering more than 1.4 billion people this year.

Meanwhile, it is projected that the world population will reach 8 billion by November 15 this year, it could grow to 8.5 billion in 2030 and 10.4 billion in 2100, as the death rate slows.

More than half of the projected increase in world population by 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

The 46 least developed countries are some of the world’s fastest growing countries. Many are projected to double in population between 2022 and 2050, which puts additional pressure on resources and poses challenges to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, the report reads.

However, it is projected that the population of 61 countries will decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, driven by a decline in fertility.

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